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Machida Zelvia vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kashima
Kashima
6/21/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia49%
×Draw23%
Kashima28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.81
Kashima
1.31

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Kashima
1.49

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Kashima
1.47

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Kashima+0.08on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
72%
Machida Zelvia or Kashima
77%
Draw or Kashima
51%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
27%
Kashima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
84%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
54%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
27%
Kashima 1+ goals
73%
Kashima 2+ goals
38%
Kashima 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%
Kashima (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Kashima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kashima attack 1.49 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
49%
level
23%
Kashima scores more
28%

Machida Zelvia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Kashima

Machida Zelvia beat Kashima 2-1 in J1 League on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Machida GION Stadium in Machida.