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Kashima vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
5/3/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14Mercari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kashima39%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.25
Machida Zelvia
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 151 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.56
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Kashima
0.89
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
66%
Kashima or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
61%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
17%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
71%
Kashima 2+ goals
36%
Kashima 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
68%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
32%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
53%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.56 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashima scores more
39%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
34%

Kashima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Kashima 1–0 Machida Zelvia

Kashima beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J1 League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Mercari Stadium in Kashima.