Machida Zelvia 3–0 Kamatamare Sanuki

Machida Zelvia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kamatamare Sanuki

5/13/2018

J2 League · Round 14Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Machida Zelvia53%

×Draw25%

Kamatamare Sanuki21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchKamatamare Sanuki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.90

Machida Zelvia

1.58

Kamatamare Sanuki

0.90

Machida Zelvia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 26 away

1.32

creates per match

0.69

1.10

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.32

Kamatamare Sanuki

0.69

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.10

Kamatamare Sanuki

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

79%

Machida Zelvia or Kamatamare Sanuki

75%

Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki

47%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

28%

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

79%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

47%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

21%

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals

59%

Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals

23%

Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

71%

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.69 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

53%

level

25%

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more

21%

Machida Zelvia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff