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Kamatamare Sanuki vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
10/31/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Pikara Stadium (Marugame)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki25%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.94
Machida Zelvia
1.43

Machida Zelvia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.75
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.54
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
52%
Kamatamare Sanuki or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
75%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
9%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
61%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
24%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
7%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
42%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
34%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.75 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
25%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
48%

Machida Zelvia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kamatamare Sanuki 1–1 Machida Zelvia

Kamatamare Sanuki and Machida Zelvia drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Pikara Stadium (Marugame).