Machida Zelvia 2–1 Jubilo Iwata: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jubilo Iwata

8/12/2023

J2 League · Round 30Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Machida Zelvia35%

×Draw27%

Jubilo Iwata38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchJubilo Iwata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.26

Machida Zelvia

1.21

Jubilo Iwata

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 84 away

1.32

creates per match

1.42

1.10

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.32

Jubilo Iwata

1.42

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.10

Jubilo Iwata

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Jubilo Iwata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

62%

Machida Zelvia or Jubilo Iwata

73%

Draw or Jubilo Iwata

65%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

15%

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

70%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

34%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

12%

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

72%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

36%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

48%

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.42 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

35%

level

27%

Jubilo Iwata scores more

38%

Jubilo Iwata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff