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Jubilo Iwata vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
4/27/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 10Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Jubilo Iwata27%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.07
Machida Zelvia
1.50

Machida Zelvia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 43 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.21
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.60
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
53%
Jubilo Iwata or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
73%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
10%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
66%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
29%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
9%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
78%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
44%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
36%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.21 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
27%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
47%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Jubilo Iwata 2–0 Machida Zelvia

Jubilo Iwata beat Machida Zelvia 2-0 in J1 League on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.