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Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka
2/27/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Machida Zelvia53%
×Draw24%
Grulla Morioka23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.66
Grulla Morioka
1.00

Machida Zelvia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 21 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Grulla Morioka
0.90

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Grulla Morioka
2.00

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Grulla Morioka+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Grulla Morioka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
77%
Machida Zelvia or Grulla Morioka
76%
Draw or Grulla Morioka
47%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
28%
Grulla Morioka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
81%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
49%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
23%
Grulla Morioka 1+ goals
63%
Grulla Morioka 2+ goals
26%
Grulla Morioka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
70%
Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Grulla Morioka away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Grulla Morioka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Grulla Morioka attack 0.90 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
53%
level
24%
Grulla Morioka scores more
23%

Machida Zelvia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka

Machida Zelvia beat Grulla Morioka 1-0 in J2 League on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.