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Grulla Morioka vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
7/23/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 28Iwagin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Grulla Morioka23%
×Draw25%
Machida Zelvia52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grulla Morioka
0.94
Machida Zelvia
1.56

Machida Zelvia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 127 away

creates per match

Grulla Morioka
0.76
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Grulla Morioka
1.81
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Grulla Morioka+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grulla Morioka ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grulla Morioka or draw
48%
Grulla Morioka or Machida Zelvia
75%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
77%

Winning margin

Grulla Morioka wins by 2+
8%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Grulla Morioka 1+ goals
61%
Grulla Morioka 2+ goals
24%
Grulla Morioka 3+ goals
7%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
79%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
46%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Grulla Morioka (draw refunded)
31%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grulla Morioka at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grulla Morioka attack 0.76 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Grulla Morioka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grulla Morioka scores more
23%
level
25%
Machida Zelvia scores more
52%

Machida Zelvia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grulla Morioka vs Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Grulla Morioka 3-1 in J2 League on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Iwagin Stadium in Morioka.