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Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
05:00
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
10/31/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Machida GION Stadium
Big match
51%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
51%24%25%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia51%
×Draw24%
Gamba Osaka25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.68
Gamba Osaka
1.10

Machida Zelvia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Gamba Osaka
1.06

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Gamba Osaka
1.19

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Gamba Osaka-0.23scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Gamba Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
75%
Machida Zelvia or Gamba Osaka
76%
Draw or Gamba Osaka
49%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
27%
Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
81%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
50%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
24%
Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
67%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
30%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
67%
Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.68

Gamba Osaka attack 1.06 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
51%
level
24%
Gamba Osaka scores more
25%

Machida Zelvia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gamba Osaka score first in only 25% of matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Gamba Osaka
Defensively solid
45%Possession51%
78%Pass accuracy80%
12.9Shots12.4
1.63xGBiggest gap1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaGamba Osaka

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Machida Zelvia
1
Draws
1
Gamba Osaka
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 80%
2–33–11–03–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Osaka
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka

October 31, 2026: Machida Zelvia take on Gamba Osaka in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.