Gamba Osaka 0–1 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

4/2/2025

J1 League · Round 8Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gamba Osaka33%

×Draw27%

Machida Zelvia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.29

Gamba Osaka

1.15

Machida Zelvia

1.29

Machida Zelvia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 43 away

1.36

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.36

Machida Zelvia

1.40

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.19

Machida Zelvia

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

60%

Gamba Osaka or Machida Zelvia

73%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

67%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

13%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

68%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

32%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

11%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

72%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

37%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

45%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

33%

level

27%

Machida Zelvia scores more

40%

Machida Zelvia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff