Machida Zelvia 1–1 Gamba Osaka: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gamba Osaka

2/24/2024

J1 League · Round 1Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia51%

×Draw24%

Gamba Osaka25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchGamba Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.10

Machida Zelvia

1.68

Gamba Osaka

1.10

Machida Zelvia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.16

creates per match

1.06

1.14

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

2.16

Gamba Osaka

1.06

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.14

Gamba Osaka

1.19

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less

Gamba Osaka-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Gamba Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

75%

Machida Zelvia or Gamba Osaka

76%

Draw or Gamba Osaka

49%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

27%

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

81%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

50%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

24%

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

67%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

30%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

67%

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.68

Gamba Osaka attack 1.06 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

51%

level

24%

Gamba Osaka scores more

25%

Machida Zelvia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff