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Machida Zelvia vs FC Ryukyu — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu
4/21/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 9Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%
×Draw26%
FC Ryukyu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.50
FC Ryukyu
1.11

Machida Zelvia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 85 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
FC Ryukyu
1.12

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
FC Ryukyu
1.68

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
FC Ryukyu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

FC Ryukyu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
72%
Machida Zelvia or FC Ryukyu
74%
Draw or FC Ryukyu
54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
23%
FC Ryukyu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
78%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
44%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
19%
FC Ryukyu 1+ goals
67%
FC Ryukyu 2+ goals
30%
FC Ryukyu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
62%
FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

FC Ryukyu away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Ryukyu attack 1.12 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
46%
level
26%
FC Ryukyu scores more
28%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Ryukyu

Machida Zelvia beat FC Ryukyu 3-0 in J2 League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.