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FC Ryukyu vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
10/30/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 36Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

FC Ryukyu35%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ryukyu
1.26
Machida Zelvia
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 127 away

creates per match

FC Ryukyu
1.40
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

FC Ryukyu
1.33
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

FC Ryukyu+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ryukyu ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Ryukyu or draw
62%
FC Ryukyu or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
65%

Winning margin

FC Ryukyu wins by 2+
15%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Ryukyu 1+ goals
72%
FC Ryukyu 2+ goals
36%
FC Ryukyu 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
73%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
38%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)
48%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ryukyu at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ryukyu attack 1.40 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.26

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Ryukyu scores more
35%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
38%

Machida Zelvia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: FC Ryukyu 0–0 Machida Zelvia

FC Ryukyu and Machida Zelvia drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium in Okinawa.