Machida Zelvia 0–0 Consadole Sapporo

Machida Zelvia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Consadole Sapporo

9/21/2024

J1 League · Round 31Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Machida Zelvia47%

×Draw25%

Consadole Sapporo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.14

Machida Zelvia

1.57

Consadole Sapporo

1.14

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 123 away

1.41

creates per match

1.28

1.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.41

Consadole Sapporo

1.28

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.00

Consadole Sapporo

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

72%

Machida Zelvia or Consadole Sapporo

75%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

53%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

24%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

79%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

46%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

21%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

68%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

32%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

63%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

47%

level

25%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

28%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff