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Consadole Sapporo vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
3/16/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Consadole Sapporo32%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.21
Machida Zelvia
1.40

Machida Zelvia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 43 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.49
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.41
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
59%
Consadole Sapporo or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
68%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
14%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
70%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
34%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
12%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
75%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
41%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
44%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
32%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
41%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Consadole Sapporo vs Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Consadole Sapporo 2-1 in J1 League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sapporo Dome in Sapporo.