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Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
5/15/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia52%
×Draw21%
Cerezo Osaka27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
2.13
Cerezo Osaka
1.48

Machida Zelvia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Cerezo Osaka
1.83

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Cerezo Osaka
2.10

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Cerezo Osaka+0.17scores more

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
73%
Machida Zelvia or Cerezo Osaka
79%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
48%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
31%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
88%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
63%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
35%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
77%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
43%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
66%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.10 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.83 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
52%
level
21%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
27%

Machida Zelvia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka

Machida Zelvia beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.