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Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
8/7/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cerezo Osaka42%
×Draw25%
Machida Zelvia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.51
Machida Zelvia
1.33

Cerezo Osaka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.91
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.89scores more
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
67%
Cerezo Osaka or Machida Zelvia
75%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
58%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
20%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
78%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
44%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
19%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
74%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
38%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
55%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.91 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
42%
level
25%
Machida Zelvia scores more
33%

Cerezo Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia

Cerezo Osaka and Machida Zelvia drew 0-0 in J1 League on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium in Osaka.