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Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
10/18/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Machida Zelvia43%
×Draw29%
Avispa Fukuoka28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.25
Avispa Fukuoka
0.94

Machida Zelvia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 98 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Avispa Fukuoka
0.88

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
Avispa Fukuoka
1.10

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
72%
Machida Zelvia or Avispa Fukuoka
71%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
57%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
19%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
71%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
36%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
13%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
61%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
24%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
61%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
43%
level
29%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
28%

Machida Zelvia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Machida Zelvia 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka

Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka drew 0-0 in J1 League on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Machida GION Stadium in Machida.