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Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
3/29/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka29%
×Draw29%
Machida Zelvia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
0.98
Machida Zelvia
1.25

Machida Zelvia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 43 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
58%
Avispa Fukuoka or Machida Zelvia
71%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
71%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
11%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
62%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
26%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
8%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
71%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
36%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
41%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
29%
level
29%
Machida Zelvia scores more
42%

Machida Zelvia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia

Avispa Fukuoka and Machida Zelvia drew 2-2 in J1 League on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.