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Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
11/4/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 40Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Machida Zelvia38%
×Draw28%
Avispa Fukuoka34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.23
Avispa Fukuoka
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 65 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Avispa Fukuoka
1.18

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Avispa Fukuoka
1.14

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
66%
Machida Zelvia or Avispa Fukuoka
72%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
62%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
17%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
71%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
35%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
13%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
68%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
32%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
53%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.18 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
38%
level
28%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
34%

Machida Zelvia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Machida Zelvia beat Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 in J2 League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo).