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Machico vs AR São Martinho — Taça de Portugal 2018

Machico
Machico
FT
0 – 5
AR São Martinho
AR São Martinho
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Machico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Machico6%
×Draw15%
AR São Martinho79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machico
0.50
AR São Martinho
2.38

AR São Martinho creates 376% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Machico
1.00
AR São Martinho
3.00

allows per match

Machico
1.75
AR São Martinho
0.00

finishing

Machico+0.00on par
AR São Martinho+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machico ↓

AR São Martinho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–216%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Machico or draw
21%
Machico or AR São Martinho
85%
Draw or AR São Martinho
94%

Winning margin

Machico wins by 2+
1%
AR São Martinho wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Machico 1+ goals
39%
Machico 2+ goals
9%
Machico 3+ goals
1%
AR São Martinho 1+ goals
91%
AR São Martinho 2+ goals
68%
AR São Martinho 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Machico (draw refunded)
7%
AR São Martinho (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

AR São Martinho away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machico attack 1.00 + AR São Martinho defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

AR São Martinho attack 3.00 + Machico defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Machico scores more
6%
level
15%
AR São Martinho scores more
79%

AR São Martinho at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "AR São Martinho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Machico 0–5 AR São Martinho

AR São Martinho beat Machico 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Machico in Madeira.