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AR São Martinho vs Machico — Taça de Portugal 2018

AR São Martinho
AR São Martinho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Machico
Machico
8/30/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AR São Martinho64%
×Draw20%
Machico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AR São Martinho
2.19
Machico
1.02

AR São Martinho creates 115% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

AR São Martinho
1.14
Machico
0.75

allows per match

AR São Martinho
1.29
Machico
3.25

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par
Machico+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Machico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw
83%
AR São Martinho or Machico
80%
Draw or Machico
36%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+
40%
Machico wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals
89%
AR São Martinho 2+ goals
64%
AR São Martinho 3+ goals
37%
Machico 1+ goals
64%
Machico 2+ goals
27%
Machico 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)
79%
Machico (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Machico away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.14 + Machico defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Machico attack 0.75 + AR São Martinho defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AR São Martinho scores more
64%
level
20%
Machico scores more
17%

AR São Martinho at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AR São Martinho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AR São Martinho vs Machico

Machico beat AR São Martinho 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira in Santo Tirso.