Macclesfield 3–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Macclesfield

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

T. Vassell 83'

E. Osadebe 68'

T. Archibald 30'

8/10/2019

League Two · Round 2Moss Rose Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Macclesfield37%

×Draw29%

Leyton Orient34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacclesfieldExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Macclesfield

1.17

Leyton Orient

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 94 away

1.15

creates per match

1.17

1.05

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Macclesfield

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Macclesfield

1.05

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw

66%

Macclesfield or Leyton Orient

71%

Draw or Leyton Orient

63%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals

69%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

33%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

11%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

67%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

30%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

52%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.15 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Macclesfield defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macclesfield scores more

37%

level

29%

Leyton Orient scores more

34%

Macclesfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

T. Archibald

49'

L. Angol

52'

M. Welch-Hayes

63'

J. Blyth← J. Ironside

66'

L. Dennis← J. Maguire-Drew

68'

E. Osadebe↳ M. Welch-Hayes

75'

M. Harrold← J. Coulson

79'

V. Gomis← B. Stephens

81'

J. Alabi← L. Angol

83'

T. Vassell↳ J. McCourt

86'

C. Kirby← J. McCourt

Macclesfield

Leyton

1

Brill

6

▼

2

5

15

44

8

16

10

▼

Maguire-D

9

Wilkinson

19

▼

Angol

1

Evans

5

Kelleher

6

⚽

Vassell

12

A

Welch-Hay

3

Clarke

8

Harris

4

A

▼

McCourt

20

⚽

Osadebe

11

⚽

Archibald

10

▼

Stephens

9

▼

Ironside

Manager: S. Campbell

63'▲J. Blyth←▼J. Ironside

79'▲V. Gomis←▼B. Stephens

86'▲C. Kirby←▼J. McCourt

Macclesfield substitutes

18Blyth19Gomis14Kirby13Charles-Cook15Horsfall16O'Keefe

Manager: R. Embleton

66'▲L. Dennis←▼J. Maguire-Drew

75'▲M. Harrold←▼J. Coulson

81'▲J. Alabi←▼L. Angol

Leyton Orient substitutes

17Dennis18Harrold27Alabi14Judd4Gorman3Widdowson12Sargeant