Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leyton Orient vs Macclesfield — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
J. Brophy 75'
J. Blyth 90+1'
2/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Leyton Orient53%
×Draw25%
Macclesfield22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.59
Macclesfield
0.92

Leyton Orient creates 73% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 18 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Macclesfield
0.72

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Macclesfield
1.78

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
78%
Leyton Orient or Macclesfield
75%
Draw or Macclesfield
47%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
28%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
80%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
47%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
21%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
60%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
23%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
71%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
53%
level
25%
Macclesfield scores more
22%

Leyton Orient at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. O'KeefeMacclesfieldMacclesfield · D
7.3

Match Events

13'
Craig Clay
46'
J. Coulson← D. Happe
59'
D. Johnson← J. Maguire-Drew
59'
T. Archibald← S. Tracey
68'
L. Angol← C. Wilkinson
70'
D. Wilson← J. Ironside
75'
J. Brophy↳ C. Clay
83'
J. Blyth← C. Kirby
90+1'
J. Blyth↳ D. Wilson

Possession

61%Leyton

Shots

8Leyton

Pass accuracy

56%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonMacclesfield
Overview
61%Possession39%
8Total Shots7
5Corners3
6Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots7
2On Target4
6Off Target1
0Blocked2
6Inside Box5
2Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
488Total Passes300
317Accurate Passes153
65%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0

League Two: Leyton Orient 1–1 Macclesfield

Leyton Orient and Macclesfield drew 1-1 in League Two on February 8, 2020.

Goals: J. Brophy (75'), J. Blyth (90+1').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.