Macclesfield 1–2 Leek Town: Result & Stats

Macclesfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leek Town

L. Duffy 35'

J. Ndene 90'

O. Shenton 38'

12/26/2024

League #59 · Northern - 24The Leasing.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Macclesfield56%

×Draw27%

Leek Town17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacclesfieldExpected goals in this matchLeek Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.65

Macclesfield

1.45

Leek Town

0.65

Macclesfield creates 123% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

0.50

0.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Macclesfield

1.40

Leek Town

0.50

allows per match

Macclesfield

0.80

Leek Town

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Leek Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Leek Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw

83%

Macclesfield or Leek Town

73%

Draw or Leek Town

44%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+

29%

Leek Town wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals

77%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

42%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

18%

Leek Town 1+ goals

48%

Leek Town 2+ goals

14%

Leek Town 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

77%

Leek Town (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Leek Town away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.40 + Leek Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Leek Town attack 0.50 + Macclesfield defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Macclesfield scores more

56%

level

27%

Leek Town scores more

17%

Macclesfield at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

L. Duffy

38'

O. Shenton

90'

J. Ndene

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff