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Leek Town vs Macclesfield — League #59 2026

Leek Town
Leek Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
A. Hurst 52' (pen)
D. Elliott 20'
L. Duffy 18'
4/21/2025League #59League #59 · Northern - 41F. Ball Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leek Town13%
×Draw19%
Macclesfield68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leek Town
0.82
Macclesfield
2.17

Macclesfield creates 165% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Leek Town
0.25
Macclesfield
2.60

allows per match

Leek Town
1.75
Macclesfield
1.40

finishing

Leek Town+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leek Town ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Leek Town or draw
32%
Leek Town or Macclesfield
81%
Draw or Macclesfield
87%

Winning margin

Leek Town wins by 2+
4%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Leek Town 1+ goals
56%
Leek Town 2+ goals
20%
Leek Town 3+ goals
5%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
89%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
64%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Leek Town (draw refunded)
16%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leek Town at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leek Town attack 0.25 + Macclesfield defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Macclesfield attack 2.60 + Leek Town defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Leek Town scores more
13%
level
19%
Macclesfield scores more
68%

Macclesfield at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Duffy
20'
D. Elliott
52'
A. HurstPenalty
65'
L. Edwards
65'
L. Edwards

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leek Town 1 – 2 Macclesfield

Macclesfield beat Leek Town 2-1 in League #59 on April 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Duffy (18'), D. Elliott (20'), A. Hurst (52' pen).

The match was played at F. Ball Community Stadium in Leek, Staffordshire.