Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Macclesfield vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Macclesfield
Macclesfield
CANC
00:00
Carlisle
Carlisle
3/28/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Moss Rose Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Macclesfield41%
×Draw28%
Carlisle31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macclesfield
1.25
Carlisle
1.06

Macclesfield creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 115 away

creates per match

Macclesfield
1.15
Carlisle
1.07

allows per match

Macclesfield
1.05
Carlisle
1.35

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw
69%
Macclesfield or Carlisle
72%
Draw or Carlisle
59%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+
18%
Carlisle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals
71%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
36%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
13%
Carlisle 1+ goals
65%
Carlisle 2+ goals
29%
Carlisle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)
56%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.15 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Macclesfield defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Macclesfield scores more
41%
level
28%
Carlisle scores more
31%

Macclesfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macclesfield face Carlisle (League Two)

League Two returns with Macclesfield hosting Carlisle. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Macclesfield host Carlisle at Moss Rose Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.