Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlisle vs Macclesfield — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
R. Loft 82'
H. McKirdy 45+2'
T. Archibald 25'
11/2/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Carlisle50%
×Draw26%
Macclesfield24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.52
Macclesfield
0.96

Carlisle creates 58% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 18 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Macclesfield
0.72

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Macclesfield
1.78

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
76%
Carlisle or Macclesfield
74%
Draw or Macclesfield
50%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
26%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
78%
Carlisle 2+ goals
45%
Carlisle 3+ goals
20%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
62%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
25%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
68%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carlisle scores more
50%
level
26%
Macclesfield scores more
24%

Carlisle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. CollinCarlisleCarlisle · G
7.7

Match Events

25'
T. Archibald
30'
Mike David Jones
45+2'
H. McKirdy
50'
Emmanuel Osadebe
66'
H. Hope← H. McKirdy
66'
V. Gomis← J. Ironside
75'
R. Loft← O. Olomola
82'
R. Loft
84'
C. Carroll← J. Bridge
86'
Canice Carroll

Possession

59%Carlisle

Shots

15Carlisle

Pass accuracy

53%Carlisle

Statistics

CarlisleMacclesfield
Overview
59%Possession41%
15Total Shots15
8Corners3
14Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots15
2On Target6
8Off Target3
5Blocked6
7Inside Box8
8Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
476Total Passes321
361Accurate Passes214
76%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Macclesfield

Carlisle beat Macclesfield 2-1 in League Two on November 2, 2019.

Goals: T. Archibald (25'), H. McKirdy (45+2'), R. Loft (82').

Carlisle controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.