Maccabi Tzur Shalom 0–0 Hapoel Kaukab

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Kaukab

4/20/2023

League #496 · North - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom22%

×Draw30%

Hapoel Kaukab48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tzur ShalomExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kaukab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.25

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.75

Hapoel Kaukab

1.25

Hapoel Kaukab creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.75

Hapoel Kaukab

1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.25

Hapoel Kaukab

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Hapoel Kaukab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw

52%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Hapoel Kaukab

70%

Draw or Hapoel Kaukab

78%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

7%

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

53%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

17%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

4%

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

32%

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hapoel Kaukab away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.75 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

22%

level

30%

Hapoel Kaukab scores more

48%

Hapoel Kaukab at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff