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Maccabi Tzur Shalom vs Hapoel Kaukab — League #496 2026

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
A. Morjan 45+4'
12/11/2021League #496League #496 · North - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom28%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Kaukab44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.02
Hapoel Kaukab
1.34

Hapoel Kaukab creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.29
Hapoel Kaukab
1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.43
Hapoel Kaukab
0.75

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par
Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Hapoel Kaukab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw
56%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Hapoel Kaukab
72%
Draw or Hapoel Kaukab
72%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
11%
Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
64%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
27%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
39%
Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Hapoel Kaukab away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.29 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
28%
level
28%
Hapoel Kaukab scores more
44%

Hapoel Kaukab at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
A. Morjan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Tzur Shalom 0–1 Hapoel Kaukab

Hapoel Kaukab beat Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1-0 in League #496 on December 11, 2021.

Goals: A. Morjan (45+4').