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Maccabi Tzur Shalom vs Hapoel Kaukab — League #496 2026

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
FT
0 – 0
Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
12/6/2019League #496League #496 · North - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom30%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Kaukab41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.97
Hapoel Kaukab
1.19

Hapoel Kaukab creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.20
Hapoel Kaukab
1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.13
Hapoel Kaukab
0.75

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par
Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Hapoel Kaukab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw
59%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Hapoel Kaukab
71%
Draw or Hapoel Kaukab
70%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
11%
Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
62%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
25%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
7%
Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
42%
Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Hapoel Kaukab away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.20 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
30%
level
29%
Hapoel Kaukab scores more
41%

Hapoel Kaukab at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Tzur Shalom 0–0 Hapoel Kaukab

Maccabi Tzur Shalom and Hapoel Kaukab drew 0-0 in League #496 on December 6, 2019.