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Maccabi Tzur Shalom vs Hapoel Asi Gilboa — League #496 2026

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
CANC
00:00
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
11/8/2019League #496League #496 · North - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom42%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.60
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
1.40

Maccabi Tzur Shalom creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.20
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
1.67

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1.13
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
2.00

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par
Hapoel Asi Gilboa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Hapoel Asi Gilboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw
66%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Hapoel Asi Gilboa
76%
Draw or Hapoel Asi Gilboa
58%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
80%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
47%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
22%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Hapoel Asi Gilboa away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.20 + Hapoel Asi Gilboa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hapoel Asi Gilboa attack 1.67 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
42%
level
24%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa scores more
34%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Tzur Shalom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maccabi Tzur Shalom vs Hapoel Asi Gilboa — Match Preview

Maccabi Tzur Shalom face Hapoel Asi Gilboa on November 8, 2019 in this League #496 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.