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Hapoel Asi Gilboa vs Maccabi Tzur Shalom — League #496 2026

Hapoel Asi Gilboa
Hapoel Asi Gilboa
FT
0 – 0
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
4/25/2019League #496League #496 · North - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Asi Gilboa35%
×Draw45%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Asi Gilboa
0.63
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.39

Hapoel Asi Gilboa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa
0.33
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.77

allows per match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa
0.00
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.92

finishing

Hapoel Asi Gilboa+0.00on par
Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Under
  • Under92
  • Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Asi Gilboa ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–036%
0–114%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (36%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
64%36%1.5
27%73%2.5
8%92%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Hapoel Asi Gilboa or draw
81%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
55%
Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Asi Gilboa wins by 2+
10%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hapoel Asi Gilboa 1+ goals
47%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa 2+ goals
13%
Hapoel Asi Gilboa 3+ goals
3%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
32%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
6%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Asi Gilboa (draw refunded)
65%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Asi Gilboa at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Asi Gilboa attack 0.33 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.77 + Hapoel Asi Gilboa defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Hapoel Asi Gilboa scores more
35%
level
45%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
19%

Hapoel Asi Gilboa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Hapoel Asi Gilboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Hapoel Asi Gilboa 0–0 Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Hapoel Asi Gilboa and Maccabi Tzur Shalom drew 0-0 in League #496 on April 25, 2019.