Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–0 Hapoel Hadera

Maccabi Petah Tikva

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Hadera

1/26/2026

Liga Leumit · Round 20HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva56%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Hadera22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Hadera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.06

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.84

Hapoel Hadera

1.06

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 74% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

1.11

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

2.00

Hapoel Hadera

1.11

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.02

Hapoel Hadera

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Hadera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw

78%

Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Hadera

77%

Draw or Hapoel Hadera

44%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

32%

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

84%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

55%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

28%

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

72%

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 2.00 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.11 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

56%

level

23%

Hapoel Hadera scores more

22%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff