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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
3/29/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 2HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva38%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Hadera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.23
Hapoel Hadera
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 97 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.15
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.30
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
65%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Hadera
72%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
62%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
35%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
38%
level
28%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
35%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hadera

Maccabi Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Hadera 4-1 in Ligat Ha'al on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.