Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–3 Beitar Jerusalem

Maccabi Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Beitar Jerusalem

3/16/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 26HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva32%

×Draw26%

Beitar Jerusalem42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.44

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.24

Beitar Jerusalem

1.44

Beitar Jerusalem creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 120 away

1.15

creates per match

1.57

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.15

Beitar Jerusalem

1.57

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.30

Beitar Jerusalem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw

58%

Maccabi Petah Tikva or Beitar Jerusalem

74%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

68%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

14%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

71%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

35%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

13%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

76%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

42%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

44%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

32%

level

26%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

42%

Beitar Jerusalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff