Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Beitar Jerusalem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Petah Tikva

5/20/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 7Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem46%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar JerusalemExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Beitar Jerusalem

1.48

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.11

Beitar Jerusalem creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 68 away

1.40

creates per match

0.94

1.28

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.40

Maccabi Petah Tikva

0.94

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.28

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw

72%

Beitar Jerusalem or Maccabi Petah Tikva

74%

Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva

54%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

23%

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

77%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

43%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

19%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

67%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

30%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

62%

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.40 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

46%

level

26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

28%

Beitar Jerusalem at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff