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Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
1/26/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 20Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Maccabi Netanya41%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Hadera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Netanya
1.34
Hapoel Hadera
1.17

Maccabi Netanya creates 15% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 97 away

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.37
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.30
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw
67%
Maccabi Netanya or Hapoel Hadera
73%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
59%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more
41%
level
27%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
33%

Maccabi Netanya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Hadera

Maccabi Netanya beat Hapoel Hadera 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.