Hapoel Hadera 2–2 Maccabi Netanya: Result & Stats

Hapoel Hadera

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Netanya

10/21/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 7Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Hadera35%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Netanya39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaderaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.38

Hapoel Hadera

1.31

Maccabi Netanya

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 118 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.50

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.00

Maccabi Netanya

1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.50

Maccabi Netanya

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw

61%

Hapoel Hadera or Maccabi Netanya

74%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

16%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

14%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

75%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

40%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

48%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more

35%

level

26%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

39%

Maccabi Netanya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff