Maccabi Netanya 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem

Maccabi Netanya

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beitar Jerusalem

3/30/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Championship Round - 2Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Maccabi Netanya35%

×Draw25%

Beitar Jerusalem39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi NetanyaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Maccabi Netanya

1.35

Beitar Jerusalem

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 120 away

1.37

creates per match

1.57

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.37

Beitar Jerusalem

1.57

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.30

Beitar Jerusalem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw

61%

Maccabi Netanya or Beitar Jerusalem

75%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

65%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

16%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

74%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

39%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

15%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

76%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

42%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

47%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more

35%

level

25%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

39%

Beitar Jerusalem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff