Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2–3 Maccabi Herzliya

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Herzliya

4/19/2024

Liga Leumit · Promotion Group - 1Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa42%

×Draw24%

Maccabi Herzliya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Herzliya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.41

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Maccabi Herzliya

1.41

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 56 away

1.58

creates per match

1.27

1.55

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Maccabi Herzliya

1.27

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.55

Maccabi Herzliya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw

66%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Maccabi Herzliya

76%

Draw or Maccabi Herzliya

58%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

21%

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

79%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

47%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

21%

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

76%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

41%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

42%

level

24%

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

34%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff