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Maccabi Herzliya vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Herzliya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
4/10/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 28Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Maccabi Herzliya36%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Herzliya
1.40
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 74 away

creates per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.33
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Maccabi Herzliya
1.45
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Herzliya ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maccabi Herzliya or draw
61%
Maccabi Herzliya or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
75%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
64%

Winning margin

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals
41%
Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals
17%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
77%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
43%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)
48%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Herzliya at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 55 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.33 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Herzliya scores more
36%
level
25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
39%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Herzliya 3–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Herzliya beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3-1 in Liga Leumit on April 10, 2026.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.