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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
11/11/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 13Ramla Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa46%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.56
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.20

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
0.85

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.54

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
71%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
75%
Draw or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
54%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
23%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
46%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
21%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1+ goals
70%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2+ goals
34%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
61%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 0.85 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
46%
level
25%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth scores more
29%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2-0 in Liga Leumit on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ramla Municipal Stadium in Ramla.