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Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
3/3/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 28Ilut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth39%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.27
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.09
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw
65%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
61%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth wins by 2+
18%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3+ goals
16%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
72%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (draw refunded)
53%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 74 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 1.27 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth scores more
39%
level
26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
35%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Ahi Nazareth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa beat Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 4-0 in Liga Leumit on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Ilut Stadium in Ilut.