Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1–1 Ironi Tiberias

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

11/17/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 8Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa33%

×Draw24%

Ironi Tiberias43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.59

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.36

Ironi Tiberias

1.59

Ironi Tiberias creates 17% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 36 away

1.58

creates per match

1.64

1.55

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Ironi Tiberias

1.64

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.55

Ironi Tiberias

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw

57%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Ironi Tiberias

76%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

67%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

15%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

74%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

39%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

16%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

80%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

47%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

43%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

33%

level

24%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

43%

Ironi Tiberias at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff