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Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
3/31/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Group - 1Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias46%
×Draw26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.52
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.14

Ironi Tiberias creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
71%
Ironi Tiberias or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
74%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
54%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
23%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
78%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
45%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
20%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
32%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
62%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
46%
level
26%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
29%

Ironi Tiberias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Ironi Tiberias beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1-0 in Liga Leumit on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.