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Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2/19/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 22Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa28%
×Draw26%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.13
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 18 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.55
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw
54%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
74%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
72%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
31%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
78%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
45%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
38%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
28%
level
26%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
46%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 5-0 in Liga Leumit on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.