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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
10/5/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 7Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona54%
×Draw24%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.75
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.02

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.46

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
78%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
76%
Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
46%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
30%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
83%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
52%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
25%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals
64%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals
27%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
71%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.75

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
54%
level
24%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more
22%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 5-1 in Liga Leumit on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium in Kiryat-Shmona.