Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 4–1 Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

9/18/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 4Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa57%

×Draw20%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Shfaram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.33

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

2.19

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.33

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.11

1.55

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.11

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.55

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw

77%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

80%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

43%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

35%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

89%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

64%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

37%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals

74%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals

38%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

71%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.19

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

57%

level

20%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more

23%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff