Ihud Bnei Shfaram 0–3 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

2/2/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 19Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram24%

×Draw23%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ihud Bnei ShfaramExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.84

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.18

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.84

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 74 away

0.89

creates per match

1.46

2.22

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

0.89

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2.22

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw

47%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

77%

Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

76%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+

10%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals

69%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals

33%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals

12%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

84%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

55%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)

32%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more

24%

level

23%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

53%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff